Will it Rain at the Bumps Party?

The finest weather modelling brains in Risk Management Solutions have assisted with sourcing and analyzing weather data for Cambridge for the date of the middle of June. (Candidate date 16 June)

The probability is based on analysis of meteorological data from Cambridge and other weather stations.

At this point we have no intention in investing in weather derivatives for the event itself, but for fanatical risk managers, the hedging instrument we recommend is an umbrella.

 

Probability of Sunshine in Cambridge on June 16

Probability Odds

Probability of number of sunshine hours

Sunshine Prob.gif (3826 bytes)

No sunshine at all

7%

14 to 1

Up to three hours of sunshine:

24%

4 to 1

More than three hours of sunshine:

69%

3/2 on

More than six hours of sunshine:

51%

2 to 1

More than nine hours of sunshine:

32%

3 to 1

More than twelve hours of sunshine:

15%

7 to 1

More than fifteen hours of sunshine:

1%

150 to 1

 

Probability of Rain in Cambridge on June 16

Probability Odds

Probability of getting rained on

Rainfall Prob.gif (3643 bytes)

No Rain at all:

67%

3/2 on

Light shower (less than 1mm)

9%

10 to 1

Heavy shower (Up to 5mm)

18%

5 to 1

Prolonged shower (Up to 9mm)

4%

25 to 1

Rainy Day (Up to 15mm - approx 1/2")

0.2%

500 to 1

Complete Washout (more than 15mm)

1.5%

65 to 1

 

Long Range Forecasts

The long range weather forecasters do not have a very good accuracy rate - long range predictions are notoriously problematical.  But there are a few published forecasts for the coming summer... 

UK Met Office

"The most likely scenario for the summer is above average temperatures and slightly below normal rainfall." 

Weather Action

"We predict a cooler summer." 

London Weather Index

"This summer will be the hottest summer for five years, with a greater than 50% chance of a mini-drought." 

British Weather Services

"2001 will see a hot summer."

University College London, Benfield Greig Hazard Research Centre

"Coming spring 2001 Central England Temperature is expected to be close to the 1971-2000 average. Forecast: 8.59 +/-0.56 C; Average 1971-2000: 8.55 +/-0.78 C."

 

Whatever the weather, join us for a fun party...and if it does rain, we'll stay in the drinks tent, taunt the rowing crews and organise a wet T-shirt competition.